For an efficient management, a company is interested to:

• understand its equilibrium and weakness and dangerous factors (in terms of capitalization; debt ratios; working capital equilibrium; customers and suppliers relationships; cash management; profitability; re-establishments of resources)


• understand and know its future behaviour.

At the present context (regulation of Basle 2 and attention to risk management) it is important for a company to know its credit rating and understand which actions are needed for improving (or for maintaining in the case of a positive evaluation).

For this purpose, it is necessary to individuate critical areas which influences credit rating level, in a predictive approach.

"Scenario analysis" is a methodology, included in a software, which permits:

• to study default risk on a predictive basis for companies and economic systems with the individuation of expected benchmark of risk and return


• to estimate for each company the expected value for financial statement data and their evidence probability


• to this evidence probability (on the basis of input data) it will be possible to associate different likely scenarios representing the future situations for a company (with the assignment of every business scenario in a credit rating class).

This analysis consists in a monitoring of the health state of a company in the future (in comparison with a benchmark - competitors or industry sector) and for its credit rating level.